Finding Fed Policy Data

How to use this page

The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate: maximum employment and stable prices. Around that mandate, it manages a set of policy tools (interest rates, balance sheet, forward guidance) and watches a wider set of indicators (financial conditions, growth, housing) that transmit policy into the real economy.

Every series listed below links to the chart page on barestate. The data behind each chart is sourced from the Federal Reserve, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Census Bureau, or the relevant primary publisher, and is updated on the same release schedule as the source.

Policy tools

What the Fed sets directly.

• Fed Funds Rate — the effective overnight rate, the operational anchor of monetary policy
• Fed Target (Upper) — the upper bound of the FOMC's target range, set at each meeting

Inflation (the price-stability mandate)

What the Fed watches to gauge whether prices are stable.

• Inflation (CPI) — headline Consumer Price Index, the most-cited inflation measure
• Core Inflation — CPI ex-food and energy, the Fed's preferred near-term gauge

The Fed's formal target is 2% PCE inflation, not CPI. CPI is the public-facing series; PCE is what the policy framework is built on.

Money supply

The aggregates the Fed publishes weekly in the H.6 release. Whether they should drive policy is contested; that they exist and are tracked is not.

• Money Supply (overview) — the parent page
• M1 (Liquid Money) — currency, checkable deposits, and other highly liquid forms
• M2 (Broad Money) — M1 plus savings deposits, retail money-market funds, and small time deposits

The 2020–2022 expansion and 2022–2023 contraction in M2 are visible in the chart.

Employment (the maximum-employment mandate)

The labor market readings the FOMC cites in statements and pressers.

• Unemployment — headline U-3 rate
• Nonfarm Payrolls — monthly net jobs added, the most-watched labor release
• Job Openings (JOLTS) — vacant positions, an indicator of labor demand
• Quits Rate — voluntary separations, an indicator of worker confidence
• Initial Claims — weekly first-time unemployment insurance filings
• Continued Claims — ongoing claims, indicator of re-employment difficulty

Treasury rates and the yield curve

How the bond market is pricing Fed policy and growth expectations.

• 1-Year Treasury
• 2-Year Treasury
• 5-Year Treasury
• 10-Year Treasury
• 30-Year Treasury

And the spreads that summarize curve shape:

• Yield Curve (overview)
• 10Y−2Y Spread — the classic recession-signal spread
• 10Y−3M Spread — the Fed's own preferred curve measure
• 10Y−Fed Funds Spread — market expectation of policy stance
• Yield Spread (Monthly) — smoothed view of curve dynamics

Growth and the real economy

How the economy is performing under the policy regime.

• GDP — quarterly real output, the headline growth measure
• Industrial Production — monthly output of factories, mines, utilities
• Capacity Utilization — how much of installed capacity is in use, an indicator of slack
• Durable Goods Orders — long-lived goods orders, a leading indicator of business demand
• Capital Goods Orders — non-defense ex-aircraft, a cleaner business-investment proxy
• Business Inventories — stock of unsold goods, indicator of demand mismatch
• Chicago Fed National Activity Index — a broad single-number summary of growth conditions

Consumer activity

The demand side of the economy the Fed's rate decisions ultimately try to influence.

• Retail Sales
• Personal Consumption
• Personal Income
• Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan)
• Consumer Confidence (Amplitude) (Conference Board)

Housing as a policy transmission mechanism

Housing is the most rate-sensitive sector of the real economy, which makes it the cleanest read on how policy is actually flowing through.

• US Housing (overview)
• 15-Year Mortgage Rate
• 30-Year Mortgage Rate
• Case-Shiller Home Price Index
• FHFA House Price Index
• Housing Starts
• Single-Family Starts
• Building Permits
• New Home Sales
• Existing Home Sales
• Construction Spending

Business and external sector

Conditions outside the consumer that bear on the policy environment.

• Business Confidence
• Trade Balance
• Current Account

Cross-references

• For background on what is and is not visible in the Fed's public record, see Fed Inside-Out.
• For the Fed's own publications: H.6 release, FOMC statements and minutes, and FRED are the primary sources for everything above.

This page is updated as new data series are added to barestate. Last updated: April 2026.